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Civil Sporting vs Chitipa United — Super League 2026

Civil Sporting
Civil Sporting
FT
1 – 1
Chitipa United
Chitipa United
7/21/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1CIVO Stadium (Lilongwe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Civil Sporting66%
×Draw21%
Chitipa United13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Civil Sporting
1.94
Chitipa United
0.74

Civil Sporting creates 162% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 65 away

creates per match

Civil Sporting
2.33
Chitipa United
0.48

allows per match

Civil Sporting
1.00
Chitipa United
1.54

finishing

Civil Sporting+0.00on par
Chitipa United+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Civil Sporting ↓

Chitipa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Civil Sporting or draw
87%
Civil Sporting or Chitipa United
79%
Draw or Chitipa United
34%

Winning margin

Civil Sporting wins by 2+
40%
Chitipa United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Civil Sporting 1+ goals
86%
Civil Sporting 2+ goals
58%
Civil Sporting 3+ goals
30%
Chitipa United 1+ goals
52%
Chitipa United 2+ goals
17%
Chitipa United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Civil Sporting (draw refunded)
83%
Chitipa United (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Civil Sporting at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Chitipa United away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Civil Sporting attack 2.33 + Chitipa United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.94

Chitipa United attack 0.48 + Civil Sporting defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Civil Sporting scores more
66%
level
21%
Chitipa United scores more
13%

Civil Sporting at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Civil Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Civil Sporting 1–1 Chitipa United

Civil Sporting and Chitipa United drew 1-1 in Super League on July 21, 2019.

The match was played at CIVO Stadium (Lilongwe).