Civil Sporting 3–2 Blue Eagles: Result & Stats

Civil Sporting

FT

3 – 2

Blue Eagles

7/28/2019

Super League · Round 1CIVO Stadium (Lilongwe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Civil Sporting53%

×Draw25%

Blue Eagles22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Civil SportingExpected goals in this matchBlue Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.98

Civil Sporting

1.65

Blue Eagles

0.98

Civil Sporting creates 68% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 67 away

2.33

creates per match

0.97

1.00

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Civil Sporting

2.33

Blue Eagles

0.97

allows per match

Civil Sporting

1.00

Blue Eagles

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Civil Sporting+0.00on par

Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Civil Sporting ↓

Blue Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Civil Sporting or draw

78%

Civil Sporting or Blue Eagles

75%

Draw or Blue Eagles

47%

Winning margin

Civil Sporting wins by 2+

28%

Blue Eagles wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Civil Sporting 1+ goals

81%

Civil Sporting 2+ goals

49%

Civil Sporting 3+ goals

23%

Blue Eagles 1+ goals

62%

Blue Eagles 2+ goals

26%

Blue Eagles 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Civil Sporting (draw refunded)

70%

Blue Eagles (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Civil Sporting at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Blue Eagles away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Civil Sporting attack 2.33 + Blue Eagles defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.65

Blue Eagles attack 0.97 + Civil Sporting defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Civil Sporting scores more

53%

level

25%

Blue Eagles scores more

22%

Civil Sporting at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Civil Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff