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Civil Service Strollers vs Fraserburgh — FA Cup 2019

Civil Service Strollers
Civil Service Strollers
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Fraserburgh
Fraserburgh
9/17/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundCivil Service Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Civil Service Strollers22%
×Draw22%
Fraserburgh56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Civil Service Strollers
1.17
Fraserburgh
2.00

Fraserburgh creates 71% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Civil Service Strollers
0.33
Fraserburgh
1.33

allows per match

Civil Service Strollers
2.67
Fraserburgh
2.00

finishing

Civil Service Strollers+0.00on par
Fraserburgh+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Civil Service Strollers ↓

Fraserburgh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Civil Service Strollers or draw
44%
Civil Service Strollers or Fraserburgh
78%
Draw or Fraserburgh
78%

Winning margin

Civil Service Strollers wins by 2+
9%
Fraserburgh wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Civil Service Strollers 1+ goals
69%
Civil Service Strollers 2+ goals
33%
Civil Service Strollers 3+ goals
11%
Fraserburgh 1+ goals
86%
Fraserburgh 2+ goals
59%
Fraserburgh 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Civil Service Strollers (draw refunded)
28%
Fraserburgh (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Civil Service Strollers at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Fraserburgh away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Civil Service Strollers attack 0.33 + Fraserburgh defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Fraserburgh attack 1.33 + Civil Service Strollers defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Civil Service Strollers scores more
22%
level
22%
Fraserburgh scores more
56%

Fraserburgh at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fraserburgh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Civil Service Strollers 1–2 Fraserburgh

Fraserburgh beat Civil Service Strollers 2-1 in FA Cup on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Civil Service Sports Ground in Edinburgh.