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Ciudad Vinotinto vs Angostura FC — Segunda División 2018

Ciudad Vinotinto
Ciudad Vinotinto
FT
0 – 2
Angostura FC
Angostura FC
3/27/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 3Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ciudad Vinotinto31%
×Draw28%
Angostura FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad Vinotinto
1.05
Angostura FC
1.23

Angostura FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 74 away

creates per match

Ciudad Vinotinto
0.83
Angostura FC
1.05

allows per match

Ciudad Vinotinto
1.42
Angostura FC
1.28

finishing

Ciudad Vinotinto+0.00on par
Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad Vinotinto ↓

Angostura FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ciudad Vinotinto or draw
60%
Ciudad Vinotinto or Angostura FC
72%
Draw or Angostura FC
69%

Winning margin

Ciudad Vinotinto wins by 2+
12%
Angostura FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ciudad Vinotinto 1+ goals
65%
Ciudad Vinotinto 2+ goals
28%
Ciudad Vinotinto 3+ goals
9%
Angostura FC 1+ goals
71%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
35%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ciudad Vinotinto (draw refunded)
44%
Angostura FC (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad Vinotinto at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad Vinotinto attack 0.83 + Angostura FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.05

Angostura FC attack 1.05 + Ciudad Vinotinto defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ciudad Vinotinto scores more
31%
level
28%
Angostura FC scores more
40%

Angostura FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Angostura FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ciudad Vinotinto vs Angostura FC

Angostura FC beat Ciudad Vinotinto 2-0 in Segunda División on March 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).