Ciudad Rodrigo 1–1 Villaralbo: Result & Stats

Ciudad Rodrigo

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Villaralbo

Velázquez 86'

Sekou Kante 37' (pen)

1/19/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 20Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ciudad Rodrigo35%

×Draw28%

Villaralbo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ciudad RodrigoExpected goals in this matchVillaralbo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.18

Ciudad Rodrigo

1.16

Villaralbo

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

1.15

creates per match

0.83

1.53

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Ciudad Rodrigo

1.15

Villaralbo

0.83

allows per match

Ciudad Rodrigo

1.53

Villaralbo

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par

Villaralbo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad Rodrigo ↓

Villaralbo →

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ciudad Rodrigo or draw

64%

Ciudad Rodrigo or Villaralbo

72%

Draw or Villaralbo

65%

Winning margin

Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+

15%

Villaralbo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals

69%

Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals

32%

Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals

11%

Villaralbo 1+ goals

69%

Villaralbo 2+ goals

33%

Villaralbo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)

49%

Villaralbo (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ciudad Rodrigo at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

Villaralbo away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 1.15 + Villaralbo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Villaralbo attack 0.83 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ciudad Rodrigo scores more

35%

level

28%

Villaralbo scores more

36%

Villaralbo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Villaralbo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Sekou KantePenalty

46'

Roberto Rodríguez← Luis Prieto

55'

Luismi← Sergio Rivera

63'

Gonzalo Hernández← Álex Pérez

63'

Isma← Maza

68'

Lolo← Daniel Peralta

74'

Iván Fernández← Álex Medina

80'

Alvaro Castaño← Javier Moriñigo

86'

Velázquez

87'

Anibal González← Pepe Sáinz

Ciudad

Villaralbo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Adrián Fraile

63'▲Gonzalo Hernández←▼Álex Pérez

63'▲Isma←▼Maza

74'▲Iván Fernández←▼Álex Medina

80'▲Alvaro Castaño←▼Javier Moriñigo

Ciudad Rodrigo substitutes

HernándezIsmaFernándezCastaño

Manager: Chuchi Jorqués

46'▲Roberto Rodríguez←▼Luis Prieto

55'▲Luismi←▼Sergio Rivera

68'▲Lolo←▼Daniel Peralta

87'▲Anibal González←▼Pepe Sáinz

Villaralbo substitutes

RodríguezLuismiLoloGonzález