Ciudad Rodrigo 2–3 Ribert: Result & Stats

Ciudad Rodrigo

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Ribert

4/14/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 32Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ciudad Rodrigo44%

×Draw25%

Ribert31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ciudad RodrigoExpected goals in this matchRibert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.23

Ciudad Rodrigo

1.51

Ribert

1.23

Ciudad Rodrigo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 16 away

1.15

creates per match

0.94

1.53

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Ciudad Rodrigo

1.15

Ribert

0.94

allows per match

Ciudad Rodrigo

1.53

Ribert

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par

Ribert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad Rodrigo ↓

Ribert →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ciudad Rodrigo or draw

69%

Ciudad Rodrigo or Ribert

75%

Draw or Ribert

56%

Winning margin

Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+

22%

Ribert wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals

78%

Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals

44%

Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals

19%

Ribert 1+ goals

71%

Ribert 2+ goals

35%

Ribert 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)

59%

Ribert (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ciudad Rodrigo at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

Ribert away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 1.15 + Ribert defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.51

Ribert attack 0.94 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ciudad Rodrigo scores more

44%

level

25%

Ribert scores more

31%

Ciudad Rodrigo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ciudad Rodrigo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff