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Ciudad Rodrigo vs Mirandés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ciudad Rodrigo
Ciudad Rodrigo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mirandés II
Mirandés II
4/6/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 31Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ciudad Rodrigo36%
×Draw27%
Mirandés II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.25
Mirandés II
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 112 away

creates per match

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.15
Mirandés II
1.04

allows per match

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.53
Mirandés II
1.34

finishing

Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par
Mirandés II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad Rodrigo ↓

Mirandés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ciudad Rodrigo or draw
62%
Ciudad Rodrigo or Mirandés II
73%
Draw or Mirandés II
64%

Winning margin

Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+
15%
Mirandés II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals
71%
Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals
36%
Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals
13%
Mirandés II 1+ goals
72%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
37%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)
49%
Mirandés II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad Rodrigo at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

Mirandés II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 1.15 + Mirandés II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mirandés II attack 1.04 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ciudad Rodrigo scores more
36%
level
27%
Mirandés II scores more
38%

Mirandés II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ciudad Rodrigo vs Mirandés II

Mirandés II beat Ciudad Rodrigo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos in Salamanca.