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Ciudad Rodrigo vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ciudad Rodrigo
Ciudad Rodrigo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
4/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 35Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ciudad Rodrigo37%
×Draw27%
La Virgen del Camino37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.29
La Virgen del Camino
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 111 away

creates per match

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.15
La Virgen del Camino
1.05

allows per match

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.53
La Virgen del Camino
1.43

finishing

Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par
La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad Rodrigo ↓

La Virgen del Camino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ciudad Rodrigo or draw
63%
Ciudad Rodrigo or La Virgen del Camino
73%
Draw or La Virgen del Camino
63%

Winning margin

Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+
16%
La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals
72%
Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals
37%
Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals
14%
La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
72%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
37%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)
50%
La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad Rodrigo at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 1.15 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ciudad Rodrigo scores more
37%
level
27%
La Virgen del Camino scores more
37%

Ciudad Rodrigo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ciudad Rodrigo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad Rodrigo 1 – 2 La Virgen del Camino

La Virgen del Camino beat Ciudad Rodrigo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos in Salamanca.