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Ciudad Rodrigo vs Arandina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ciudad Rodrigo
Ciudad Rodrigo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Arandina
Arandina
12/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 16Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ciudad Rodrigo29%
×Draw27%
Arandina44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.09
Arandina
1.40

Arandina creates 28% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 94 away

creates per match

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.15
Arandina
1.26

allows per match

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.53
Arandina
1.03

finishing

Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par
Arandina+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad Rodrigo ↓

Arandina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ciudad Rodrigo or draw
56%
Ciudad Rodrigo or Arandina
73%
Draw or Arandina
71%

Winning margin

Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+
11%
Arandina wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals
66%
Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals
30%
Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals
10%
Arandina 1+ goals
75%
Arandina 2+ goals
41%
Arandina 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)
40%
Arandina (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad Rodrigo at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

Arandina away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 1.15 + Arandina defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Arandina attack 1.26 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ciudad Rodrigo scores more
29%
level
27%
Arandina scores more
44%

Arandina at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arandina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad Rodrigo 0 – 2 Arandina

Arandina beat Ciudad Rodrigo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos in Salamanca.