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Ciudad Rodrigo vs Almazán — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ciudad Rodrigo
Ciudad Rodrigo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Almazán
Almazán
4/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 34Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ciudad Rodrigo36%
×Draw27%
Almazán36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.25
Almazán
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 113 away

creates per match

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.15
Almazán
0.97

allows per match

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.53
Almazán
1.34

finishing

Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par
Almazán+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad Rodrigo ↓

Almazán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ciudad Rodrigo or draw
64%
Ciudad Rodrigo or Almazán
73%
Draw or Almazán
64%

Winning margin

Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+
16%
Almazán wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals
71%
Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals
36%
Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals
13%
Almazán 1+ goals
71%
Almazán 2+ goals
36%
Almazán 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)
50%
Almazán (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad Rodrigo at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

Almazán away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 1.15 + Almazán defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Almazán attack 0.97 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ciudad Rodrigo scores more
36%
level
27%
Almazán scores more
36%

Ciudad Rodrigo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ciudad Rodrigo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ciudad Rodrigo vs Almazán

Almazán beat Ciudad Rodrigo 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos in Salamanca.