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Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Vélez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Vélez
Vélez
9/8/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 3Estadio Matías Prats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno52%
×Draw24%
Vélez24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.70
Vélez
1.09

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno creates 56% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 26 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.77
Vélez
1.19

allows per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.00
Vélez
1.62

finishing

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par
Vélez+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno ↓

Vélez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or draw
76%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or Vélez
76%
Draw or Vélez
48%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
28%
Vélez wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
82%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
51%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
24%
Vélez 1+ goals
66%
Vélez 2+ goals
30%
Vélez 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
68%
Vélez (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

Vélez away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.77 + Vélez defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.70

Vélez attack 1.19 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
52%
level
24%
Vélez scores more
24%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ciudad de Torredonjimeno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 5 – 2 Vélez

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno beat Vélez 5-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Matías Prats in Torredonjimeno.