Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1–1 Motril: Result & Stats

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Motril

1/12/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 17Estadio Matías Prats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno44%

×Draw27%

Motril29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ciudad de TorredonjimenoExpected goals in this matchMotril

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.09

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.41

Motril

1.09

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno creates 29% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 112 away

1.77

creates per match

1.18

1.00

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.77

Motril

1.18

allows per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.00

Motril

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Motril+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno ↓

Motril →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or draw

71%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or Motril

73%

Draw or Motril

56%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+

21%

Motril wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals

76%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals

41%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals

17%

Motril 1+ goals

66%

Motril 2+ goals

30%

Motril 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)

60%

Motril (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

Motril away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.77 + Motril defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.41

Motril attack 1.18 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more

44%

level

27%

Motril scores more

29%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ciudad de Torredonjimeno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Motril

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno and Motril drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Matías Prats in Torredonjimeno.

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Motril — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Motril