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Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Malaga City — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Malaga City
Malaga City
12/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 15Estadio Matías Prats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno62%
×Draw22%
Malaga City16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.86
Malaga City
0.83

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno creates 124% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 49 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.77
Malaga City
0.67

allows per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.00
Malaga City
1.96

finishing

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par
Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno ↓

Malaga City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or draw
84%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or Malaga City
78%
Draw or Malaga City
38%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
36%
Malaga City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
84%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
55%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
28%
Malaga City 1+ goals
56%
Malaga City 2+ goals
20%
Malaga City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
79%
Malaga City (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.77 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.86

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
62%
level
22%
Malaga City scores more
16%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ciudad de Torredonjimeno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2–1 Malaga City

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno beat Malaga City 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Matías Prats in Torredonjimeno.