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Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Huétor Vega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
11/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 12Estadio Matías Prats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno50%
×Draw25%
Huétor Vega25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.57
Huétor Vega
1.02

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno creates 54% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 109 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.77
Huétor Vega
1.04

allows per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.00
Huétor Vega
1.38

finishing

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par
Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno ↓

Huétor Vega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or draw
75%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or Huétor Vega
75%
Draw or Huétor Vega
50%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
26%
Huétor Vega wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
79%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
46%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
21%
Huétor Vega 1+ goals
64%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
27%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
67%
Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

Huétor Vega away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.77 + Huétor Vega defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.57

Huétor Vega attack 1.04 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
50%
level
25%
Huétor Vega scores more
25%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ciudad de Torredonjimeno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2–2 Huétor Vega

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno and Huétor Vega drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Matías Prats in Torredonjimeno.