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Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Huétor Tájar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
9/22/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 3Estadio Matías Prats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno50%
×Draw25%
Huétor Tájar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.61
Huétor Tájar
1.06

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno creates 52% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 109 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.77
Huétor Tájar
1.11

allows per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.00
Huétor Tájar
1.45

finishing

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par
Huétor Tájar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno ↓

Huétor Tájar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or draw
75%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or Huétor Tájar
75%
Draw or Huétor Tájar
50%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
26%
Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
80%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
48%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
22%
Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
65%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
29%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
67%
Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

Huétor Tájar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.77 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.61

Huétor Tájar attack 1.11 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
50%
level
25%
Huétor Tájar scores more
25%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ciudad de Torredonjimeno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 0 – 2 Huétor Tájar

Huétor Tájar beat Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Matías Prats in Torredonjimeno.