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Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Atlético Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
FT
10 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Atlético Melilla
Atlético Melilla
5/12/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 34Estadio Matías Prats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno82%
×Draw12%
Atlético Melilla6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
2.97
Atlético Melilla
0.73

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno creates 307% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.77
Atlético Melilla
0.47

allows per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.00
Atlético Melilla
4.18

finishing

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par
Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno ↓

Atlético Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or draw
94%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or Atlético Melilla
88%
Draw or Atlético Melilla
18%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
62%
Atlético Melilla wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
95%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
79%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
56%
Atlético Melilla 1+ goals
52%
Atlético Melilla 2+ goals
17%
Atlético Melilla 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
93%
Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

Atlético Melilla away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.77 + Atlético Melilla defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.97

Atlético Melilla attack 0.47 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
82%
level
12%
Atlético Melilla scores more
6%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Ciudad de Torredonjimeno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 10–0 Atlético Melilla

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno beat Atlético Melilla 10-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Matías Prats in Torredonjimeno.