Ciudad de Lucena 3–2 Utrera: Result & Stats

Ciudad de Lucena

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Utrera

9/7/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 1Estadio Ciudad de Lucena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Ciudad de Lucena52%

×Draw25%

Utrera23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ciudad de LucenaExpected goals in this matchUtrera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.94

Ciudad de Lucena

1.56

Utrera

0.94

Ciudad de Lucena creates 66% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 96 away

1.89

creates per match

1.32

0.56

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Ciudad de Lucena

1.89

Utrera

1.32

allows per match

Ciudad de Lucena

0.56

Utrera

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Utrera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Lucena ↓

Utrera →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ciudad de Lucena or draw

77%

Ciudad de Lucena or Utrera

75%

Draw or Utrera

48%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+

27%

Utrera wins by 2+

Team goals

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals

79%

Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals

46%

Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals

21%

Utrera 1+ goals

61%

Utrera 2+ goals

24%

Utrera 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)

69%

Utrera (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Lucena at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.56 · 109 matches

Utrera away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.89 + Utrera defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.56

Utrera attack 1.32 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ciudad de Lucena scores more

52%

level

25%

Utrera scores more

23%

Ciudad de Lucena at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Ciudad de Lucena 3–2 Utrera

Ciudad de Lucena beat Utrera 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lucena in Lucena.

Ciudad de Lucena vs Utrera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Ciudad de Lucena 3–2 Utrera