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Ciudad de Lucena vs Córdoba II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Córdoba II
Córdoba II
10/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 5Estadio Ciudad de Lucena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Ciudad de Lucena56%
×Draw25%
Córdoba II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Lucena
1.61
Córdoba II
0.84

Ciudad de Lucena creates 92% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 110 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Lucena
1.89
Córdoba II
1.13

allows per match

Ciudad de Lucena
0.56
Córdoba II
1.34

finishing

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par
Córdoba II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Lucena ↓

Córdoba II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ciudad de Lucena or draw
80%
Ciudad de Lucena or Córdoba II
75%
Draw or Córdoba II
44%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
30%
Córdoba II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
80%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
48%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
22%
Córdoba II 1+ goals
57%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
21%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
74%
Córdoba II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Lucena at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.56 · 109 matches

Córdoba II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.89 + Córdoba II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.61

Córdoba II attack 1.13 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ciudad de Lucena scores more
56%
level
25%
Córdoba II scores more
20%

Ciudad de Lucena at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ciudad de Lucena vs Córdoba II

Ciudad de Lucena beat Córdoba II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lucena in Lucena.