Ciudad de Lucena 2–1 Cartaya: Result & Stats

Ciudad de Lucena

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cartaya

9/10/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 1Estadio Ciudad de Lucena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Ciudad de Lucena63%

×Draw23%

Cartaya14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ciudad de LucenaExpected goals in this matchCartaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.69

Ciudad de Lucena

1.77

Cartaya

0.69

Ciudad de Lucena creates 157% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 65 away

1.89

creates per match

0.82

0.56

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Ciudad de Lucena

1.89

Cartaya

0.82

allows per match

Ciudad de Lucena

0.56

Cartaya

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Cartaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Lucena ↓

Cartaya →

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ciudad de Lucena or draw

86%

Ciudad de Lucena or Cartaya

77%

Draw or Cartaya

37%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+

37%

Cartaya wins by 2+

Team goals

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals

83%

Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals

53%

Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals

26%

Cartaya 1+ goals

50%

Cartaya 2+ goals

15%

Cartaya 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)

82%

Cartaya (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Lucena at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.56 · 109 matches

Cartaya away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.89 + Cartaya defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.77

Cartaya attack 0.82 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ciudad de Lucena scores more

63%

level

23%

Cartaya scores more

14%

Ciudad de Lucena at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Ciudad de Lucena 2–1 Cartaya

Ciudad de Lucena beat Cartaya 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lucena in Lucena.

Ciudad de Lucena vs Cartaya — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Ciudad de Lucena 2–1 Cartaya