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Ciudad de Lucena vs Arcos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
CANC
00:00
Arcos
Arcos
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 34Estadio Ciudad de Lucena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Ciudad de Lucena64%
×Draw23%
Arcos13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Lucena
1.75
Arcos
0.64

Ciudad de Lucena creates 173% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 28 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Lucena
1.89
Arcos
0.71

allows per match

Ciudad de Lucena
0.56
Arcos
1.61

finishing

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par
Arcos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Lucena ↓

Arcos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ciudad de Lucena or draw
87%
Ciudad de Lucena or Arcos
77%
Draw or Arcos
36%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
37%
Arcos wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
83%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
52%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
25%
Arcos 1+ goals
47%
Arcos 2+ goals
14%
Arcos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
83%
Arcos (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Lucena at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.56 · 109 matches

Arcos away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.89 + Arcos defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.75

Arcos attack 0.71 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ciudad de Lucena scores more
64%
level
23%
Arcos scores more
13%

Ciudad de Lucena at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad de Lucena vs Arcos — Match Preview

Ciudad de Lucena face Arcos on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ciudad de Lucena host Arcos at Estadio Ciudad de Lucena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.