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Ciudad de Bolívar vs Sportivo Peñarol — Torneo Federal A 2018

Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
5/28/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 13Estadio Municipal Eva Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Ciudad de Bolívar58%
×Draw25%
Sportivo Peñarol17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.59
Sportivo Peñarol
0.71

Ciudad de Bolívar creates 124% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 62 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.52
Sportivo Peñarol
0.87

allows per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
0.54
Sportivo Peñarol
1.66

finishing

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par
Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Bolívar ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ciudad de Bolívar or draw
83%
Ciudad de Bolívar or Sportivo Peñarol
75%
Draw or Sportivo Peñarol
42%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+
32%
Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals
80%
Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals
47%
Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals
21%
Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
51%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
16%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)
78%
Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Bolívar at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.54 · 80 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 1.52 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.87 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more
58%
level
25%
Sportivo Peñarol scores more
17%

Ciudad de Bolívar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Ciudad de Bolívar 1–0 Sportivo Peñarol

Ciudad de Bolívar beat Sportivo Peñarol 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Eva Perón in Bolívar, Provincia de Buenos Aires.