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Ciudad de Bolívar vs Sol de América — Torneo Federal A 2018

Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sol de América
Sol de América
11/5/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundEstadio Municipal Eva Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ciudad de Bolívar57%
×Draw28%
Sol de América15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.40
Sol de América
0.58

Ciudad de Bolívar creates 141% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.52
Sol de América
0.63

allows per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
0.54
Sol de América
1.27

finishing

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par
Sol de América+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Bolívar ↓

Sol de América →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ciudad de Bolívar or draw
85%
Ciudad de Bolívar or Sol de América
72%
Draw or Sol de América
43%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+
29%
Sol de América wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals
75%
Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals
41%
Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals
17%
Sol de América 1+ goals
44%
Sol de América 2+ goals
12%
Sol de América 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)
79%
Sol de América (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Bolívar at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.54 · 80 matches

Sol de América away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 1.52 + Sol de América defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sol de América attack 0.63 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more
57%
level
28%
Sol de América scores more
15%

Ciudad de Bolívar at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Ciudad de Bolívar 3–1 Sol de América

Ciudad de Bolívar beat Sol de América 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Eva Perón in Bolívar, Provincia de Buenos Aires.