Ciudad de Bolívar vs San Martín Mendoza — Torneo Federal A 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
Ciudad de Bolívar58%
San Martín Mendoza16%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ciudad de Bolívar creates 128% more chances
Season form · 27 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ciudad de Bolívar ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ciudad de Bolívar at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.56 · 27 matches
San Martín Mendoza away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ciudad de Bolívar attack 1.67 + San Martín Mendoza defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.55
San Martín Mendoza attack 0.80 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.68
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Ciudad de Bolívar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ciudad de Bolívar host San Martín Mendoza on Saturday, 30 September 2023 at 17:30. The match is part of the Torneo Federal A 2025/2026 season.
Ciudad de Bolívar 0 – 3 San Martín Mendoza
San Martín Mendoza beat Ciudad de Bolívar 3-0 in Torneo Federal A on September 30, 2023.
Goals: R. Lentini (34' pen, 69' pen), I. Morales (37').
The match was played at Estadio Municipal Eva Perón in Bolívar, Provincia de Buenos Aires.