Ciudad de Bolívar vs Ferro Carril Oeste — Primera Nacional 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Ciudad de Bolívar36%
Ferro Carril Oeste33%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 10 home / 36 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under66
- Over34
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ciudad de Bolívar ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ciudad de Bolívar at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches
Ferro Carril Oeste away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 36 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ciudad de Bolívar attack 1.10 + Ferro Carril Oeste defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06
Ferro Carril Oeste attack 0.89 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Ciudad de Bolívar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
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Atlanta
Tristan Suarez
Gimnasia Y Tiro
San Miguel
San Martin Tucuman
Deportivo Maipu
Patronato
Colegiales
All Boys
Racing CordobaFerro Carril Oeste
Los Andes
Club Atlético Güemes
Quilmes
Almagro
Arsenal Sarandi
Alvarado
Gimnasia M.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
CA Estudiantes
Deportivo Moron
Gimnasia Jujuy
Temperley
Agropecuario
Chaco For Ever
Chacarita Juniors
Defensores De Belgrano
Nueva Chicago
San Telmo
Atletico Mitre
Almirante Brown
Central Norte
Colon Santa Fe
Talleres Remedios
Defensores UnidosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ciudad de Bolívar host Ferro Carril Oeste on Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 19:00. The match is part of the Primera Nacional 2026/2027 season.
Primera Nacional: Ciudad de Bolívar 2–4 Ferro Carril Oeste
Ferro Carril Oeste beat Ciudad de Bolívar 4-2 in Primera Nacional on May 3, 2026.
Goals: E. Dening (18', 81'), M. Gutierrez (38'), F. Obradovich (49'), A. Gonzalez (61'), G. Canto (88').
The match was played at Estadio Municipal Eva Peron in Bolivar.