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Ciudad de Bolívar vs Defensores De Belgrano — Primera Nacional 2026

Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar
Preview
20:00
Defensores De Belgrano
Defensores De Belgrano
8/29/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 27Estadio Municipal Eva Peron
35%
Ciudad de Bolívar
model favours
35%31%34%

Defensores De Belgrano score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ciudad de Bolívar35%
×Draw31%
Defensores De Belgrano34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.02
Defensores De Belgrano
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.10
Defensores De Belgrano
0.91

allows per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.10
Defensores De Belgrano
0.94

finishing

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par
Defensores De Belgrano+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Bolívar ↓

Defensores De Belgrano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ciudad de Bolívar or draw
66%
Ciudad de Bolívar or Defensores De Belgrano
69%
Draw or Defensores De Belgrano
65%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+
13%
Defensores De Belgrano wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals
64%
Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals
27%
Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals
8%
Defensores De Belgrano 1+ goals
64%
Defensores De Belgrano 2+ goals
27%
Defensores De Belgrano 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)
50%
Defensores De Belgrano (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Bolívar at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Defensores De Belgrano away — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 1.10 + Defensores De Belgrano defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Defensores De Belgrano attack 0.91 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more
35%
level
31%
Defensores De Belgrano scores more
34%

Ciudad de Bolívar at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of Defensores De Belgrano’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 25% of Defensores De Belgrano’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bolívar
LWLLD
Belgrano
LWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad de Bolívar face Defensores De Belgrano (Primera Nacional)

Primera Nacional returns with Ciudad de Bolívar hosting Defensores De Belgrano. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ciudad de Bolívar host Defensores De Belgrano at Estadio Municipal Eva Peron.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.