Ciudad de Bolívar 0–2 Cipolletti: Result & Stats

Ciudad de Bolívar

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cipolletti

J. Zárate 46', 17'

5/9/2021

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 5Estadio Municipal Eva Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ciudad de Bolívar50%

×Draw29%

Cipolletti21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ciudad de BolívarExpected goals in this matchCipolletti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.71

Ciudad de Bolívar

1.29

Cipolletti

0.71

Ciudad de Bolívar creates 82% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

1.67

creates per match

0.85

0.56

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Ciudad de Bolívar

1.67

Cipolletti

0.85

allows per match

Ciudad de Bolívar

0.56

Cipolletti

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par

Cipolletti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Bolívar ↓

Cipolletti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ciudad de Bolívar or draw

79%

Ciudad de Bolívar or Cipolletti

71%

Draw or Cipolletti

50%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+

24%

Cipolletti wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals

72%

Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals

37%

Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals

14%

Cipolletti 1+ goals

51%

Cipolletti 2+ goals

16%

Cipolletti 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)

71%

Cipolletti (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Bolívar at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.56 · 27 matches

Cipolletti away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 1.67 + Cipolletti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cipolletti attack 0.85 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more

50%

level

29%

Cipolletti scores more

21%

Ciudad de Bolívar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

J. Zárate

46'

J. Zárate

67'

L. Ferrari← L. Vitale

68'

M. Carrera← F. Pettineroli

72'

R. Peters← E. Fernández

78'

M. Navarro← G. Borda

78'

A. Vivanco← J. Zárate

86'

E. Romero← N. Trecco

86'

D. Aguirre← B. Magnago

Ciudad

Cipolletti

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Peralta

67'▲L. Ferrari←▼L. Vitale

72'▲R. Peters←▼E. Fernández

78'▲M. Navarro←▼G. Borda

Ciudad de Bolívar substitutes

FerrariPetersNavarro

Manager: G. Raggio

68'▲M. Carrera←▼F. Pettineroli

78'▲A. Vivanco←▼J. Zárate

86'▲E. Romero←▼N. Trecco

86'▲D. Aguirre←▼B. Magnago

Cipolletti substitutes

CarreraVivancoRomeroAguirre