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Ciudad de Bolívar vs Argentino Monte Maíz — Torneo Federal A 2018

Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Argentino Monte Maíz
Argentino Monte Maíz
11/12/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Municipal Eva Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Ciudad de Bolívar51%
×Draw28%
Argentino Monte Maíz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.33
Argentino Monte Maíz
0.73

Ciudad de Bolívar creates 82% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 71 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
1.52
Argentino Monte Maíz
0.92

allows per match

Ciudad de Bolívar
0.54
Argentino Monte Maíz
1.14

finishing

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par
Argentino Monte Maíz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Bolívar ↓

Argentino Monte Maíz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ciudad de Bolívar or draw
79%
Ciudad de Bolívar or Argentino Monte Maíz
72%
Draw or Argentino Monte Maíz
49%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+
24%
Argentino Monte Maíz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals
74%
Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals
38%
Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals
15%
Argentino Monte Maíz 1+ goals
52%
Argentino Monte Maíz 2+ goals
17%
Argentino Monte Maíz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)
71%
Argentino Monte Maíz (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Bolívar at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.54 · 80 matches

Argentino Monte Maíz away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 1.52 + Argentino Monte Maíz defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Argentino Monte Maíz attack 0.92 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more
51%
level
28%
Argentino Monte Maíz scores more
21%

Ciudad de Bolívar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ciudad de Bolívar vs Argentino Monte Maíz

Ciudad de Bolívar and Argentino Monte Maíz drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Eva Perón in Bolívar, Provincia de Buenos Aires.