Argentino Monte Maíz 1–0 Ciudad de Bolívar

Argentino Monte Maíz

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ciudad de Bolívar

M. Barbero 54'

5/11/2025

Torneo Federal A · Group 2 - 9Estadio Modesto Marrone

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Argentino Monte Maíz50%

×Draw32%

Ciudad de Bolívar18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Argentino Monte MaízExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Bolívar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.57

Argentino Monte Maíz

1.15

Ciudad de Bolívar

0.57

Argentino Monte Maíz creates 102% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 30 away

1.36

creates per match

0.70

0.44

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Argentino Monte Maíz

1.36

Ciudad de Bolívar

0.70

allows per match

Argentino Monte Maíz

0.44

Ciudad de Bolívar

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Argentino Monte Maíz+0.00on par

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentino Monte Maíz ↓

Ciudad de Bolívar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Argentino Monte Maíz or draw

82%

Argentino Monte Maíz or Ciudad de Bolívar

68%

Draw or Ciudad de Bolívar

50%

Winning margin

Argentino Monte Maíz wins by 2+

22%

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Argentino Monte Maíz 1+ goals

68%

Argentino Monte Maíz 2+ goals

32%

Argentino Monte Maíz 3+ goals

11%

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals

43%

Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals

11%

Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Argentino Monte Maíz (draw refunded)

73%

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentino Monte Maíz at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.44 · 25 matches

Ciudad de Bolívar away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentino Monte Maíz attack 1.36 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 0.70 + Argentino Monte Maíz defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Argentino Monte Maíz scores more

50%

level

32%

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more

18%

Argentino Monte Maíz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Argentino Monte Maíz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

P. Moreyra← E. Coronas

45+2'

M. Barbero

46'

J. Maciel← T. Alegre

54'

M. Barbero

56'

I. Lucero← E. Martinez

58'

J. Bassani

66'

M. Correa← J. Bassani

67'

I. Paz

72'

R. Perez← I. Paz

72'

J. Abentin← A. Paredes

77'

85'

90'

90+4'

90+5'

90'

N. Fassino← L. Larrea

90'

R. Lentini← P. Oballes

Argentino

Ciudad

1

Laborda

4

▼

Paredes

6

▼

2

3

8

5

10

▼

Paz

11

Schonfeld

7

▼

9

1

3

2

6

⚽

Barbero

8

▼

Bassani

7

▼

Larrea

4

▼

11

5

10

9

▼

Oballes

Manager: C. Mazzola

20'▲P. Moreyra←▼E. Coronas

66'▲M. Correa←▼J. Bassani

90'▲N. Fassino←▼L. Larrea

90'▲R. Lentini←▼P. Oballes

Argentino Monte Maíz substitutes

12Bovo13Moreyra14Correa15Fassino16Lasserre17Piatti18Lentini

Manager: D. Funes

46'▲J. Maciel←▼T. Alegre

56'▲I. Lucero←▼E. Martinez

72'▲R. Perez←▼I. Paz

72'▲J. Abentin←▼A. Paredes

Ciudad de Bolívar substitutes

12Biscardi13Lucero14Cardozo15Perez16Abentin17Maciel18Galvan