Ciudad de Bolívar 0–0 Almirante Brown

Ciudad de Bolívar

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Almirante Brown

3/21/2026

Primera Nacional · Round 6Estadio Municipal Eva Peron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ciudad de Bolívar40%

×Draw30%

Almirante Brown30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ciudad de BolívarExpected goals in this matchAlmirante Brown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.95

Ciudad de Bolívar

1.14

Almirante Brown

0.95

Ciudad de Bolívar creates 20% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 28 away

1.10

creates per match

0.79

1.10

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Ciudad de Bolívar

1.10

Almirante Brown

0.79

allows per match

Ciudad de Bolívar

1.10

Almirante Brown

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par

Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Bolívar ↓

Almirante Brown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ciudad de Bolívar or draw

70%

Ciudad de Bolívar or Almirante Brown

70%

Draw or Almirante Brown

60%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+

17%

Almirante Brown wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals

68%

Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals

32%

Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals

11%

Almirante Brown 1+ goals

61%

Almirante Brown 2+ goals

25%

Almirante Brown 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)

57%

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Bolívar at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Almirante Brown away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 1.10 + Almirante Brown defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Almirante Brown attack 0.79 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more

40%

level

30%

Almirante Brown scores more

30%

Ciudad de Bolívar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

18'

21'

28'

45'

46'

E. Cardozo← P. Velurtas

54'

M. Levi

61'

B. Quintana← K. Caraballo

61'

L. Villegas← C. Vega

61'

S. Gauna← T. Zarate

61'

T. Almada← L. Iglesias

79'

E. Navarro

81'

M. Belloso← S. Vera

82'

F. Mucignat← A. Gonzalez

82'

A. Diaz← B. Duarte

90+4'

F. Peralta← E. Martinez

90'

L. Jara← M. Levi

Ciudad

Almirante

1

Galvan

4

Rojas

2

▼

Levi

6

Cabral

3

▼

Velurtas

5

Velazquez

8

▼

Iglesias

7

Abreliano

10

▼

Zarate

11

Gonzalez

9

▼

1

2

3

4

6

▼

Martinez

7

Sanchez

8

Yeri

10

▼

Gonzalez

11

▼

Duarte

5

▼

Vega

9

▼

Caraballo

Manager: Diego Funes

61'▲B. Quintana←▼K. Caraballo

61'▲L. Villegas←▼C. Vega

82'▲F. Mucignat←▼A. Gonzalez

82'▲A. Diaz←▼B. Duarte

90+4'▲F. Peralta←▼E. Martinez

Ciudad de Bolívar substitutes

12Alvarez19Chacon17Mucignat13Peralta14Diaz15Fernandez18Quintana16Rodriguez20Villegas

46'▲E. Cardozo←▼P. Velurtas

61'▲S. Gauna←▼T. Zarate

61'▲T. Almada←▼L. Iglesias

81'▲M. Belloso←▼S. Vera

90'▲L. Jara←▼M. Levi

Almirante Brown substitutes

12Bottini13Jara14Villoldo15Cardozo16Quignon17Gauna18Belloso19Bazan20Almada

Match Recap: Ciudad de Bolívar vs Almirante Brown

Ciudad de Bolívar and Almirante Brown drew 0-0 in Primera Nacional on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Eva Peron in Bolivar.

Ciudad de Bolívar vs Almirante Brown — Primera Nacional 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ciudad de Bolívar vs Almirante Brown