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City SC vs Capo II — USL League Two 2026

City SC
City SC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Capo II
Capo II
6/1/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 6San Diego Jewish Academy Stadium Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

City SC46%
×Draw21%
Capo II32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

City SC
2.07
Capo II
1.71

City SC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

City SC
2.50
Capo II
2.09

allows per match

City SC
1.33
Capo II
1.64

finishing

City SC+0.00on par
Capo II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

City SC ↓

Capo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

City SC or draw
68%
City SC or Capo II
79%
Draw or Capo II
54%

Winning margin

City SC wins by 2+
26%
Capo II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

City SC 1+ goals
87%
City SC 2+ goals
61%
City SC 3+ goals
34%
Capo II 1+ goals
82%
Capo II 2+ goals
51%
Capo II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

City SC (draw refunded)
59%
Capo II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

City SC at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Capo II away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

City SC attack 2.50 + Capo II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.07

Capo II attack 2.09 + City SC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

City SC scores more
46%
level
21%
Capo II scores more
32%

City SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "City SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: City SC 1–2 Capo II

Capo II beat City SC 2-1 in USL League Two on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at San Diego Jewish Academy Stadium Field in San Diego, California.