Cittadella 1–0 Vicenza Virtus: Result & Stats

Cittadella

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vicenza Virtus

D. Frare 53'

8/21/2021

Serie B · Round 1Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Cittadella46%

×Draw26%

Vicenza Virtus28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CittadellaExpected goals in this matchVicenza Virtus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.06

Cittadella

1.44

Vicenza Virtus

1.06

Cittadella creates 36% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 43 away

1.27

creates per match

1.02

1.10

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Cittadella

1.27

Vicenza Virtus

1.02

allows per match

Cittadella

1.10

Vicenza Virtus

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cittadella+0.00on par

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella ↓

Vicenza Virtus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cittadella or draw

72%

Cittadella or Vicenza Virtus

74%

Draw or Vicenza Virtus

54%

Winning margin

Cittadella wins by 2+

22%

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cittadella 1+ goals

76%

Cittadella 2+ goals

42%

Cittadella 3+ goals

18%

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

65%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

29%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cittadella (draw refunded)

62%

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Vicenza Virtus away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella attack 1.27 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.02 + Cittadella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cittadella scores more

46%

level

26%

Vicenza Virtus scores more

28%

Cittadella at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cittadella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

92

E. Baldini

Cittadella · M

8.2

Match Events

40'

Simone Pontisso

53'

D. Frare↳ A. Vita

54'

L. Zonta← L. Crecco

55'

L. Rigoni← S. Pontisso

58'

Davide Adorni

60'

Davide Diaw

62'

S. Giacomelli← F. Proia

64'

N. Pavan← A. Danzi

68'

Mamadou Tounkara← O. Okwonkwo

69'

C. Tavernelli← M. Antonucci

74'

S. Longo← D. Diaw

78'

Camillo Tavernelli

80'

Tommaso Cassandro

80'

Nicola Pavan

82'

R. Perticone← T. Cassandro

82'

C. D'Urso← M. Gargiulo

86'

Davide LanzafamePenalty confirmed

87'

90+4'

90'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CittadellaVicenza

Overview

55%Possession45%

16Total Shots6

9Corners2

24Fouls23

Shots

16Total Shots6

6On Target2

8Off Target4

2Blocked0

12Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

327Total Passes280

228Accurate Passes183

70%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

24Fouls23

6Yellow Cards4

4Offsides5

Serie B: Cittadella 1–0 Vicenza Virtus

Cittadella beat Vicenza Virtus 1-0 in Serie B on August 21, 2021.

Goals: D. Frare (53').

Cittadella controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Cittadella.

Cittadella vs Vicenza Virtus — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Cittadella 1–0 Vicenza Virtus