Cittadella 1–2 Ternana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cittadella

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ternana

4/2/2022

Serie B · Round 32Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Cittadella45%

×Draw26%

Ternana30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CittadellaExpected goals in this matchTernana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.17

Cittadella

1.50

Ternana

1.17

Cittadella creates 28% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 59 away

1.27

creates per match

1.24

1.10

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Cittadella

1.27

Ternana

1.24

allows per match

Cittadella

1.10

Ternana

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cittadella+0.00on par

Ternana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella ↓

Ternana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cittadella or draw

70%

Cittadella or Ternana

74%

Draw or Ternana

55%

Winning margin

Cittadella wins by 2+

22%

Ternana wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cittadella 1+ goals

78%

Cittadella 2+ goals

44%

Cittadella 3+ goals

19%

Ternana 1+ goals

69%

Ternana 2+ goals

33%

Ternana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cittadella (draw refunded)

60%

Ternana (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Ternana away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.73 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella attack 1.27 + Ternana defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ternana attack 1.24 + Cittadella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cittadella scores more

45%

level

26%

Ternana scores more

30%

Cittadella at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cittadella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff