Cittadella 3–1 Reggiana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cittadella

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Reggiana

S. Rabbi 90+6'

S. Tronchin 78'

L. Pandolfi 62'

C. Gondo 84'

12/21/2024

Serie B · Round 18Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Cittadella46%

×Draw27%

Reggiana27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CittadellaExpected goals in this matchReggiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.01

Cittadella

1.40

Reggiana

1.01

Cittadella creates 39% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 76 away

1.27

creates per match

0.91

1.10

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Cittadella

1.27

Reggiana

0.91

allows per match

Cittadella

1.10

Reggiana

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cittadella+0.00on par

Reggiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella ↓

Reggiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cittadella or draw

73%

Cittadella or Reggiana

73%

Draw or Reggiana

54%

Winning margin

Cittadella wins by 2+

22%

Reggiana wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cittadella 1+ goals

75%

Cittadella 2+ goals

41%

Cittadella 3+ goals

17%

Reggiana 1+ goals

64%

Reggiana 2+ goals

27%

Reggiana 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cittadella (draw refunded)

63%

Reggiana (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Reggiana away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.53 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella attack 1.27 + Reggiana defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Reggiana attack 0.91 + Cittadella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cittadella scores more

46%

level

27%

Reggiana scores more

27%

Cittadella at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cittadella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

M. Ravasio

Cittadella · F

7.6

Match Events

29'

S. Piccinini← S. Negro

31'

Stefano Pettinari

59'

M. Ravasio← S. Branca

62'

L. Pandolfi↳ A. Salvi

65'

Francesco Bardi

68'

C. Gondo← L. Libutti

74'

Mario Ravasio

77'

L. Vido← S. Pettinari

77'

M. Maggio← M. Marras

77'

A. Sersanti← L. Ignacchiti

78'

S. Tronchin↳ M. Ravasio

84'

C. Gondo

86'

Mario Sampirisi

86'

S. Rabbi← L. Pandolfi

86'

N. Pavan← F. Casolari

89'

Alessio Vita

89'

O. Okwonkwo← A. Vergara

90+3'

Matteo Maggio

90+6'

S. Rabbi↳ M. Ravasio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CittadellaReggiana

Overview

49%Possession51%

9Total Shots10

4Corners1

28Fouls19

Shots

9Total Shots10

5On Target3

2Off Target4

2Blocked3

6Inside Box4

3Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

330Total Passes344

236Accurate Passes241

72%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

28Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2