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Cittadella vs Pordenone — Serie B 2018

Cittadella
Cittadella
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pordenone
Pordenone
10/20/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 4Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Cittadella48%
×Draw27%
Pordenone25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cittadella
1.42
Pordenone
0.96

Cittadella creates 48% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 58 away

creates per match

Cittadella
1.27
Pordenone
0.81

allows per match

Cittadella
1.10
Pordenone
1.57

finishing

Cittadella+0.00on par
Pordenone+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella ↓

Pordenone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cittadella or draw
75%
Cittadella or Pordenone
73%
Draw or Pordenone
52%

Winning margin

Cittadella wins by 2+
23%
Pordenone wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cittadella 1+ goals
76%
Cittadella 2+ goals
41%
Cittadella 3+ goals
17%
Pordenone 1+ goals
62%
Pordenone 2+ goals
25%
Pordenone 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cittadella (draw refunded)
65%
Pordenone (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Pordenone away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.57 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella attack 1.27 + Pordenone defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pordenone attack 0.81 + Cittadella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cittadella scores more
48%
level
27%
Pordenone scores more
25%

Cittadella at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cittadella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cittadella vs Pordenone

Cittadella beat Pordenone 2-0 in Serie B on October 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Cittadella.