Cittadella 1–2 Parma: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cittadella

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Parma

S. Negro 45+3'

Hernani 38'

Adrián Bernabé 8'

2/10/2024

Serie B · Round 24Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Cittadella36%

×Draw27%

Parma37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CittadellaExpected goals in this matchParma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.23

Cittadella

1.21

Parma

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 58 away

1.27

creates per match

1.36

1.10

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Cittadella

1.27

Parma

1.36

allows per match

Cittadella

1.10

Parma

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cittadella+0.00on par

Parma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella ↓

Parma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cittadella or draw

63%

Cittadella or Parma

73%

Draw or Parma

64%

Winning margin

Cittadella wins by 2+

15%

Parma wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cittadella 1+ goals

70%

Cittadella 2+ goals

34%

Cittadella 3+ goals

12%

Parma 1+ goals

71%

Parma 2+ goals

35%

Parma 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cittadella (draw refunded)

49%

Parma (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Parma away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella attack 1.27 + Parma defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Parma attack 1.36 + Cittadella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cittadella scores more

36%

level

27%

Parma scores more

37%

Parma at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Parma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

S. Branca

Cittadella · M

7.9

Match Events

2'

Stefano Negro

8'

Adrián Bernabé↳ A. Benedyczak

16'

Nahuel Estévez

37'

Matteo Angeli

38'

Hernani↳ A. Benedyczak

45+3'

S. Negro↳ A. Vita

46'

D. Frare← M. Angeli

46'

S. Sohm← N. Estévez

56'

Enrico Del Prato

61'

V. Mastrantonio← C. Cassano

61'

G. Carriero← E. Kornvig

72'

A. Čolak← A. Bonny

73'

V. Mihăilă← A. Benedyczak

78'

T. Maistrello← L. Pandolfi

82'

A. Magrassi← A. Vita

83'

W. Coulibaly← G. Di Chiara

86'

W. Cyprien← Adrián Bernabé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CittadellaParma

Overview

58%Possession42%

23Total Shots16

6Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

23Total Shots16

3On Target4

12Off Target10

8Blocked2

15Inside Box10

8Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

446Total Passes344

343Accurate Passes242

77%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2