Cittadella 2–2 Lecce: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cittadella

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Lecce

12/30/2020

Serie B · Round 16Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Cittadella36%

×Draw27%

Lecce37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CittadellaExpected goals in this matchLecce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.27

Cittadella

1.23

Lecce

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 57 away

1.27

creates per match

1.44

1.10

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Cittadella

1.27

Lecce

1.44

allows per match

Cittadella

1.10

Lecce

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cittadella+0.00on par

Lecce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella ↓

Lecce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cittadella or draw

63%

Cittadella or Lecce

73%

Draw or Lecce

64%

Winning margin

Cittadella wins by 2+

15%

Lecce wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cittadella 1+ goals

71%

Cittadella 2+ goals

35%

Cittadella 3+ goals

13%

Lecce 1+ goals

72%

Lecce 2+ goals

36%

Lecce 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cittadella (draw refunded)

49%

Lecce (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Lecce away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella attack 1.27 + Lecce defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Lecce attack 1.44 + Cittadella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cittadella scores more

36%

level

27%

Lecce scores more

37%

Lecce at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff