Cittadella 0–1 Genoa: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cittadella

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Genoa

A. Guðmundsson 70'

4/22/2023

Serie B · Round 34Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cittadella34%

×Draw28%

Genoa38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CittadellaExpected goals in this matchGenoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.18

Cittadella

1.11

Genoa

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 19 away

1.27

creates per match

1.26

1.10

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Cittadella

1.27

Genoa

1.26

allows per match

Cittadella

1.10

Genoa

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cittadella+0.00on par

Genoa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella ↓

Genoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cittadella or draw

62%

Cittadella or Genoa

72%

Draw or Genoa

66%

Winning margin

Cittadella wins by 2+

14%

Genoa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cittadella 1+ goals

67%

Cittadella 2+ goals

30%

Cittadella 3+ goals

10%

Genoa 1+ goals

69%

Genoa 2+ goals

33%

Genoa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cittadella (draw refunded)

48%

Genoa (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella attack 1.27 + Genoa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.11

Genoa attack 1.26 + Cittadella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cittadella scores more

34%

level

28%

Genoa scores more

38%

Genoa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Bani

Genoa · D

7.9

Match Events

25'

28'

38'

39'

42'

42'

46'

D. Donnarumma← G. Ambrosino

46'

I. Lores← G. Carriero

47'

Ignacio Lores Varela

56'

Massimo Coda

64'

G. Puşcaş← K. Strootman

64'

D. Drăguş← D. Criscito

67'

Denis Drăguş

69'

D. Del Fabro← S. Branca

70'

Daniele Donnarumma

70'

A. Guðmundsson↳ M. Coda

73'

Giovanni Crociata

77'

Milan Badelj

77'

T. Maistrello← M. Antonucci

77'

A. Magrassi← D. Frare

84'

M. Aramu← A. Guðmundsson

84'

S. Sturaro← M. Coda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CittadellaGenoa

Overview

35%Possession65%

9Total Shots15

5Corners5

13Fouls19

Shots

9Total Shots15

2On Target3

3Off Target10

4Blocked2

6Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

302Total Passes564

200Accurate Passes468

66%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls19

8Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides0

Serie B: Cittadella 0–1 Genoa

Genoa beat Cittadella 1-0 in Serie B on April 22, 2023.

Goals: A. Guðmundsson (70').

Genoa controlled possession (65%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Cittadella.

Cittadella vs Genoa — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Cittadella 0–1 Genoa