Cittadella 3–1 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cittadella

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Benevento

G. Carriero 89'

T. Maistrello 82'

A. Vita 28'

S. Pettinari 18'

5/6/2023

Serie B · Round 36Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Cittadella36%

×Draw28%

Benevento36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CittadellaExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.17

Cittadella

1.16

Benevento

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 79 away

1.27

creates per match

1.24

1.10

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Cittadella

1.27

Benevento

1.24

allows per match

Cittadella

1.10

Benevento

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cittadella+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cittadella or draw

64%

Cittadella or Benevento

72%

Draw or Benevento

64%

Winning margin

Cittadella wins by 2+

15%

Benevento wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cittadella 1+ goals

69%

Cittadella 2+ goals

32%

Cittadella 3+ goals

11%

Benevento 1+ goals

69%

Benevento 2+ goals

33%

Benevento 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cittadella (draw refunded)

50%

Benevento (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella attack 1.27 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Benevento attack 1.24 + Cittadella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Cittadella scores more

36%

level

28%

Benevento scores more

36%

Cittadella at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cittadella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

S. Branca

Cittadella · M

7.9

Match Events

12'

Daniele Donnarumma

18'

S. Pettinari↳ F. Veseli

28'

A. Vita↳ A. Salvi

30'

Daam Foulon

36'

M. Viviani← G. Acampora

46'

F. Giraudo← D. Donnarumma

57'

A. Danzi← M. Antonucci

60'

L. Carfora← S. Pettinari

65'

Pasquale Schiattarella

66'

Giovanni Crociata

67'

T. Maistrello← G. Ambrosino

68'

Camillo Ciano

73'

G. Carriero← A. Vita

73'

G. Letizia← D. Foulon

73'

A. Tello← R. Improta

82'

T. Maistrello↳ S. Branca

89'

G. Carriero↳ S. Branca

90'

Giuseppe Carriero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CittadellaBenevento

Overview

51%Possession49%

20Total Shots15

3Corners5

17Fouls19

Shots

20Total Shots15

12On Target2

5Off Target10

3Blocked3

9Inside Box10

11Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

348Total Passes327

248Accurate Passes225

71%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves9

Discipline

17Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Cittadella vs Benevento

Cittadella beat Benevento 3-1 in Serie B on May 6, 2023.

Goals: S. Pettinari (18'), A. Vita (28'), T. Maistrello (82'), G. Carriero (89').

Cittadella controlled possession (51%) and registered 20 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Cittadella.

Cittadella vs Benevento — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cittadella vs Benevento