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Cittadella vs Ascoli — Serie B 2018

Cittadella
Cittadella
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ascoli
Ascoli
4/13/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 33Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Cittadella44%
×Draw27%
Ascoli29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cittadella
1.39
Ascoli
1.09

Cittadella creates 28% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 114 away

creates per match

Cittadella
1.27
Ascoli
1.08

allows per match

Cittadella
1.10
Ascoli
1.50

finishing

Cittadella+0.00on par
Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella ↓

Ascoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cittadella or draw
71%
Cittadella or Ascoli
73%
Draw or Ascoli
56%

Winning margin

Cittadella wins by 2+
21%
Ascoli wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cittadella 1+ goals
75%
Cittadella 2+ goals
40%
Cittadella 3+ goals
16%
Ascoli 1+ goals
66%
Ascoli 2+ goals
30%
Ascoli 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cittadella (draw refunded)
60%
Ascoli (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella attack 1.27 + Ascoli defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Ascoli attack 1.08 + Cittadella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cittadella scores more
44%
level
27%
Ascoli scores more
29%

Cittadella at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cittadella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
F. CaligaraAscoliAscoli · M
7.5

Match Events

30'
Patrizio Masini
38'
Andrea Tessiore
46'
A. Magrassi← A. Tessiore
47'
Simone Branca
59'
Alessio Vita
64'
E. Sottini← D. Frare
72'
S. Giovane← F. Caligara
73'
V. Mastrantonio← C. Cassano
76'
J. Streng← D. Ďuriš
76'
I. Nestorovski← Pablo Rodríguez
88'
T. Maistrello← L. Pandolfi
88'
F. Giraudo← L. Carissoni

Possession

50%Cittadella

Shots

8Cittadella

Pass accuracy

49%Cittadella

Statistics

CittadellaAscoli
Overview
50%Possession50%
8Total Shots9
1Corners3
18Fouls23
Shots
8Total Shots9
2On Target3
3Off Target5
3Blocked1
5Inside Box3
3Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
370Total Passes376
265Accurate Passes287
72%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls23
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Cittadella vs Ascoli

Cittadella and Ascoli drew 0-0 in Serie B on April 13, 2024.

Cittadella controlled possession (50%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Cittadella.