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Cittadella vs Arzignano Valchiampo — Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Cittadella
Cittadella
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Arzignano Valchiampo
Arzignano Valchiampo
5/3/2026Serie C - Promotion - Play-offsSerie C - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundStadio Pier Cesare Tombolato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cittadella40%
×Draw29%
Arzignano Valchiampo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cittadella
1.17
Arzignano Valchiampo
1.00

Cittadella creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Cittadella
1.67
Arzignano Valchiampo
0.67

allows per match

Cittadella
1.33
Arzignano Valchiampo
0.67

finishing

Cittadella+0.00on par
Arzignano Valchiampo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella ↓

Arzignano Valchiampo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cittadella or draw
69%
Cittadella or Arzignano Valchiampo
71%
Draw or Arzignano Valchiampo
60%

Winning margin

Cittadella wins by 2+
17%
Arzignano Valchiampo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cittadella 1+ goals
69%
Cittadella 2+ goals
33%
Cittadella 3+ goals
11%
Arzignano Valchiampo 1+ goals
63%
Arzignano Valchiampo 2+ goals
26%
Arzignano Valchiampo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cittadella (draw refunded)
56%
Arzignano Valchiampo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Arzignano Valchiampo away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella attack 1.67 + Arzignano Valchiampo defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Arzignano Valchiampo attack 0.67 + Cittadella defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cittadella scores more
40%
level
29%
Arzignano Valchiampo scores more
31%

Cittadella at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cittadella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs: Cittadella 2–2 Arzignano Valchiampo

Cittadella and Arzignano Valchiampo drew 2-2 in Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Cittadella.