Cittadella U19 2–1 Sudtirol U19: Result & Stats

Cittadella U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sudtirol U19

10/25/2025

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cittadella U1939%

×Draw25%

Sudtirol U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cittadella U19Expected goals in this matchSudtirol U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.46

Cittadella U19

1.50

Sudtirol U19

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 45 away

1.19

creates per match

1.16

1.77

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Cittadella U19

1.19

Sudtirol U19

1.16

allows per match

Cittadella U19

1.77

Sudtirol U19

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cittadella U19+0.00on par

Sudtirol U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella U19 ↓

Sudtirol U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Cittadella U19 or draw

63%

Cittadella U19 or Sudtirol U19

75%

Draw or Sudtirol U19

61%

Winning margin

Cittadella U19 wins by 2+

19%

Sudtirol U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cittadella U19 1+ goals

78%

Cittadella U19 2+ goals

44%

Cittadella U19 3+ goals

19%

Sudtirol U19 1+ goals

77%

Sudtirol U19 2+ goals

43%

Sudtirol U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Cittadella U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Sudtirol U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella U19 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.77 · 83 matches

Sudtirol U19 away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella U19 attack 1.19 + Sudtirol U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sudtirol U19 attack 1.16 + Cittadella U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cittadella U19 scores more

39%

level

25%

Sudtirol U19 scores more

37%

Cittadella U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cittadella U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff