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Cittadella U19 vs Pordenone U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Cittadella U19
Cittadella U19
FT
1 – 3
Pordenone U19
Pordenone U19
11/19/2021Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 9Stadio Tombolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cittadella U1945%
×Draw23%
Pordenone U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cittadella U19
1.77
Pordenone U19
1.48

Cittadella U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 39 away

creates per match

Cittadella U19
1.19
Pordenone U19
1.18

allows per match

Cittadella U19
1.77
Pordenone U19
2.36

finishing

Cittadella U19+0.00on par
Pordenone U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella U19 ↓

Pordenone U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cittadella U19 or draw
68%
Cittadella U19 or Pordenone U19
77%
Draw or Pordenone U19
55%

Winning margin

Cittadella U19 wins by 2+
24%
Pordenone U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cittadella U19 1+ goals
83%
Cittadella U19 2+ goals
53%
Cittadella U19 3+ goals
26%
Pordenone U19 1+ goals
77%
Pordenone U19 2+ goals
43%
Pordenone U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Cittadella U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Pordenone U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella U19 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.77 · 83 matches

Pordenone U19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella U19 attack 1.19 + Pordenone U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.77

Pordenone U19 attack 1.18 + Cittadella U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cittadella U19 scores more
45%
level
23%
Pordenone U19 scores more
32%

Cittadella U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cittadella U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Cittadella U19 1–3 Pordenone U19

Pordenone U19 beat Cittadella U19 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on November 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Tombolo in Tombolo.