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Cittadella U19 vs Parma U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Cittadella U19
Cittadella U19
FT
0 – 3
Parma U19
Parma U19
5/13/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 30Nuovo Campo Sportivo Arsego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Cittadella U1922%
×Draw22%
Parma U1955%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cittadella U19
1.11
Parma U19
1.89

Parma U19 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 70 away

creates per match

Cittadella U19
1.19
Parma U19
2.00

allows per match

Cittadella U19
1.77
Parma U19
1.03

finishing

Cittadella U19+0.00on par
Parma U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella U19 ↓

Parma U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cittadella U19 or draw
45%
Cittadella U19 or Parma U19
78%
Draw or Parma U19
78%

Winning margin

Cittadella U19 wins by 2+
8%
Parma U19 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Cittadella U19 1+ goals
67%
Cittadella U19 2+ goals
30%
Cittadella U19 3+ goals
10%
Parma U19 1+ goals
85%
Parma U19 2+ goals
56%
Parma U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Cittadella U19 (draw refunded)
29%
Parma U19 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella U19 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.77 · 83 matches

Parma U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella U19 attack 1.19 + Parma U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Parma U19 attack 2.00 + Cittadella U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cittadella U19 scores more
22%
level
22%
Parma U19 scores more
55%

Parma U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Parma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cittadella U19 vs Parma U19

Parma U19 beat Cittadella U19 3-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Nuovo Campo Sportivo Arsego in San Giorgio delle Pertiche.