Città di Anagni 2–2 Torres: Result & Stats

Città di Anagni

FT

2 – 2

Torres

2/23/2020

Serie D - Girone G · Round 25Campo Sportivo Paliano (Paliano)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Città di Anagni22%

×Draw26%

Torres52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Città di AnagniExpected goals in this matchTorres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.87

1.52

Città di Anagni

0.87

Torres

1.52

Torres creates 75% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 29 away

1.15

creates per match

1.41

1.62

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Città di Anagni

1.15

Torres

1.41

allows per match

Città di Anagni

1.62

Torres

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Città di Anagni+0.00on par

Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Città di Anagni ↓

Torres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Città di Anagni or draw

48%

Città di Anagni or Torres

74%

Draw or Torres

78%

Winning margin

Città di Anagni wins by 2+

7%

Torres wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Città di Anagni 1+ goals

58%

Città di Anagni 2+ goals

22%

Città di Anagni 3+ goals

6%

Torres 1+ goals

78%

Torres 2+ goals

45%

Torres 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Città di Anagni (draw refunded)

29%

Torres (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Città di Anagni at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Torres away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.59 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Città di Anagni attack 1.15 + Torres defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.87

Torres attack 1.41 + Città di Anagni defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Città di Anagni scores more

22%

level

26%

Torres scores more

52%

Torres at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff