Città di Anagni 1–0 Ostia Mare: Result & Stats

Città di Anagni

FT

1 – 0

Ostia Mare

12/22/2019

Serie D - Girone G · Round 17Campo Sportivo Caslini Andrea (Colleferro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Città di Anagni27%

×Draw25%

Ostia Mare48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Città di AnagniExpected goals in this matchOstia Mare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.61

Città di Anagni

1.15

Ostia Mare

1.61

Ostia Mare creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 48 away

1.15

creates per match

1.60

1.62

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Città di Anagni

1.15

Ostia Mare

1.60

allows per match

Città di Anagni

1.62

Ostia Mare

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Città di Anagni+0.00on par

Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Città di Anagni ↓

Ostia Mare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Città di Anagni or draw

52%

Città di Anagni or Ostia Mare

75%

Draw or Ostia Mare

73%

Winning margin

Città di Anagni wins by 2+

11%

Ostia Mare wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Città di Anagni 1+ goals

68%

Città di Anagni 2+ goals

32%

Città di Anagni 3+ goals

11%

Ostia Mare 1+ goals

80%

Ostia Mare 2+ goals

48%

Ostia Mare 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Città di Anagni (draw refunded)

36%

Ostia Mare (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Città di Anagni at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Città di Anagni attack 1.15 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Città di Anagni defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Città di Anagni scores more

27%

level

25%

Ostia Mare scores more

48%

Ostia Mare at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff