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Città di Anagni vs Latina — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Città di Anagni
Città di Anagni
FT
2 – 3
Latina
Latina
9/29/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 5Campo Sportivo Caslini Andrea (Colleferro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Città di Anagni31%
×Draw24%
Latina45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Città di Anagni
1.34
Latina
1.66

Latina creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Città di Anagni
1.15
Latina
1.69

allows per match

Città di Anagni
1.62
Latina
1.54

finishing

Città di Anagni+0.00on par
Latina+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Città di Anagni ↓

Latina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Città di Anagni or draw
55%
Città di Anagni or Latina
76%
Draw or Latina
69%

Winning margin

Città di Anagni wins by 2+
14%
Latina wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Città di Anagni 1+ goals
74%
Città di Anagni 2+ goals
39%
Città di Anagni 3+ goals
15%
Latina 1+ goals
81%
Latina 2+ goals
49%
Latina 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Città di Anagni (draw refunded)
41%
Latina (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Città di Anagni at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Latina away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Città di Anagni attack 1.15 + Latina defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Latina attack 1.69 + Città di Anagni defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Città di Anagni scores more
31%
level
24%
Latina scores more
45%

Latina at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Latina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Città di Anagni 2–3 Latina

Latina beat Città di Anagni 3-2 in Serie D - Girone G on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Caslini Andrea (Colleferro).