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Città di Anagni vs Lanusei — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Città di Anagni
Città di Anagni
PST
13:00
Lanusei
Lanusei
4/26/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 33Campo Sportivo Caslini Andrea (Colleferro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Città di Anagni42%
×Draw27%
Lanusei32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Città di Anagni
1.35
Lanusei
1.14

Città di Anagni creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

creates per match

Città di Anagni
1.15
Lanusei
0.65

allows per match

Città di Anagni
1.62
Lanusei
1.55

finishing

Città di Anagni+0.00on par
Lanusei+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Città di Anagni ↓

Lanusei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Città di Anagni or draw
68%
Città di Anagni or Lanusei
73%
Draw or Lanusei
58%

Winning margin

Città di Anagni wins by 2+
19%
Lanusei wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Città di Anagni 1+ goals
74%
Città di Anagni 2+ goals
39%
Città di Anagni 3+ goals
15%
Lanusei 1+ goals
68%
Lanusei 2+ goals
32%
Lanusei 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Città di Anagni (draw refunded)
57%
Lanusei (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Città di Anagni at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Lanusei away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Città di Anagni attack 1.15 + Lanusei defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lanusei attack 0.65 + Città di Anagni defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Città di Anagni scores more
42%
level
27%
Lanusei scores more
32%

Città di Anagni at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Città di Anagni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Città di Anagni host Lanusei

April 26, 2020: Città di Anagni take on Lanusei in Serie D - Girone G. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Città di Anagni host Lanusei at Campo Sportivo Caslini Andrea (Colleferro).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.