Città di Anagni 2–2 Arzachena: Result & Stats

Città di Anagni

FT

2 – 2

Arzachena

10/13/2019

Serie D - Girone G · Round 7Campo Sportivo Caslini Andrea (Colleferro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Città di Anagni32%

×Draw25%

Arzachena43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Città di AnagniExpected goals in this matchArzachena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.49

Città di Anagni

1.25

Arzachena

1.49

Arzachena creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

1.15

creates per match

1.35

1.62

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Città di Anagni

1.15

Arzachena

1.35

allows per match

Città di Anagni

1.62

Arzachena

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Città di Anagni+0.00on par

Arzachena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Città di Anagni ↓

Arzachena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Città di Anagni or draw

57%

Città di Anagni or Arzachena

75%

Draw or Arzachena

68%

Winning margin

Città di Anagni wins by 2+

13%

Arzachena wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Città di Anagni 1+ goals

71%

Città di Anagni 2+ goals

36%

Città di Anagni 3+ goals

13%

Arzachena 1+ goals

77%

Arzachena 2+ goals

44%

Arzachena 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Città di Anagni (draw refunded)

43%

Arzachena (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Città di Anagni at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Arzachena away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Città di Anagni attack 1.15 + Arzachena defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Arzachena attack 1.35 + Città di Anagni defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Città di Anagni scores more

32%

level

25%

Arzachena scores more

43%

Arzachena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arzachena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff