Frosinone 0–0 Fiorentina: Result & Stats | Serie A

Frosinone

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fiorentina

3/20/2016

Serie A · Round 30Stadio Matusa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Frosinone37%

×Draw26%

Fiorentina37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.31

Frosinone

1.30

Fiorentina

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 43 away

1.16

creates per match

1.13

1.50

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Frosinone

1.16

Fiorentina

1.13

allows per match

Frosinone

1.50

Fiorentina

1.44

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.11scores more

Fiorentina+0.08on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

63%

Frosinone or Fiorentina

74%

Draw or Fiorentina

63%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

16%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

73%

Frosinone 2+ goals

37%

Frosinone 3+ goals

14%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

73%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

38%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

50%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.50 · 11 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.44 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.16 + Fiorentina defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Fiorentina attack 1.13 + Frosinone defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Frosinone scores more

37%

level

26%

Fiorentina scores more

37%

Frosinone at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

N. Leali

Frosinone · G

8.1

Match Events

24'

25'

31'

35'

36'

49'

63'

Tello← F. Bernardeschi

72'

74'

81'

82'

86'

K. Babacar← J. Iličić

88'

Paolo Sammarco

90'

V. Pryyma← M. Ciofani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneFiorentina

Overview

31%Possession69%

14Total Shots25

4Corners4

0Fouls0

Shots

14Total Shots25

5On Target6

5Off Target11

4Blocked8

5Inside Box14

9Outside Box11

Passing

31%Possession69%

247Total Passes549

147Accurate Passes445

60%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

0Fouls0

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

5Offsides1