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Cirkulane vs Korotan Prevalje — 3. SNL - East 2020

Cirkulane
Cirkulane
FT
1 – 1
Korotan Prevalje
Korotan Prevalje
10/18/20203. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 9Športni park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cirkulane57%
×Draw24%
Korotan Prevalje19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cirkulane
1.69
Korotan Prevalje
0.85

Cirkulane creates 99% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

creates per match

Cirkulane
1.75
Korotan Prevalje
1.21

allows per match

Cirkulane
0.50
Korotan Prevalje
1.63

finishing

Cirkulane+0.00on par
Korotan Prevalje+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cirkulane ↓

Korotan Prevalje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cirkulane or draw
81%
Cirkulane or Korotan Prevalje
76%
Draw or Korotan Prevalje
43%

Winning margin

Cirkulane wins by 2+
32%
Korotan Prevalje wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cirkulane 1+ goals
82%
Cirkulane 2+ goals
50%
Cirkulane 3+ goals
24%
Korotan Prevalje 1+ goals
57%
Korotan Prevalje 2+ goals
21%
Korotan Prevalje 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cirkulane (draw refunded)
75%
Korotan Prevalje (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cirkulane at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Korotan Prevalje away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cirkulane attack 1.75 + Korotan Prevalje defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Korotan Prevalje attack 1.21 + Cirkulane defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cirkulane scores more
57%
level
24%
Korotan Prevalje scores more
19%

Cirkulane at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cirkulane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. SNL - East: Cirkulane 1–1 Korotan Prevalje

Cirkulane and Korotan Prevalje drew 1-1 in 3. SNL - East on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Športni park in Cirkulane.